Power Bills for Solar Homes will Double Under Dutton

Ten million Australians will see their power bills more than double under Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy, according to detailed analysis from the Smart Energy Council.

For the 4 million solar homes across the nation, power bills will go up more than $1,100 a year (details below).

For non-solar homes, power bills will go up by an average $665 a year – a 30% increase.

StateCurrent average bill (solar homes)Power bill with nuclear (solar homes)Increase to power bills by nuclear (solar homes)
NSW$1,059$2,321$1,262
SE Qld$1,354$2,773$1,419
SA$1,433$2,791$1,358
Victoria$878$1,986$1,108

Solar families will be hit hard three times under Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy – they won’t be able to save money on their power bills with solar because the panels will be turned off two thirds of the time to accommodate nuclear power; they’ll have to pay more for their energy because nuclear power is the most expensive; and they’ll be taxed up to $600 billion to build nuclear reactors. 

A detailed analysis and state breakdown of nuclear bill prices rises is outlined below.

Smart Energy Council Chief Executive John Grimes says nuclear power will be a triple tax for 10 million solar loving Australians.

“Peter Dutton wants to force millions of Australians to switch off the solar they bought, make them pay for more expensive nuclear power, and use their taxes to build nuclear reactors.”

“Power bills will double under Dutton for 10 million Australians.”

“Australians know the best thing you can do to save money on your power bills is to get solar on your roof but now that is all under threat.”

“Four million Australian families have each invested thousands of dollars in solar to slash their power bills, only to find that the Liberal and National Parties want to now double their power bills.”

“This is a conservative analysis from the Smart Energy Council. We know that power bills are going to soar for all Australians because Peter Dutton wants to cap cheap, clean renewable energy and substitute it with expensive, unreliable, polluting coal and gas, while we wait a couple of decades to build their nuclear fantasies.”

“The Federal Opposition’s nuclear modelling shows they will cap renewables at 54% of the energy mix in 2050. The Australian Energy Market Operator’s latest quarterly report shows renewables are already at 46% of the energy market and on 6 November 2024, renewables were providing more than 75% of the electricity in the National Energy Market.”

“Detailed analysis by Nexa Advisory and other experts shows households are already paying higher and higher power bills every year as a direct result of renewables being capped and new capacity restricted by planning delays.”

Solar power bills will double under Dutton

The Smart Energy Council has analysed the impact Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan will have on the millions of Australian solar households and their energy bills.

Based on the Coalition’s plan to force 14 gigawatts of expensive nuclear power into Australia’s grid, the analysis finds that up to 5 million rooftop solar systems will be curtailed to ensure electricity supply meets electricity demand. 

The Smart Energy Council’s full analysis is below, but in short reveals:

  • Between 3,217,500 to 5,148,000 rooftop solar systems (up to 12.5 million Australians) will need to be shut off every day to allow so-called ‘baseload’ nuclear to be shoe-horned into the system.
  • Nuclear will knock out solar for an average 67% of the year, resulting in lost energy savings and solar residents being forced on to higher nuclear power prices.
  • The combination of lost solar savings and being forced to pay for more expensive nuclear power will mean energy bills for solar homes will double, up from $1,181 to $2,468 per year.
  • Nuclear power will add $665 per year to the average non-solar household power bill, up 30% from $2,000 to $2,665.
  • Australia’s 4 million solar homes stand to lose a combined $4.8 billion in energy savings because of nuclear power being forced into the grid, every single year.

Australian solar homes currently save around $1,000 per year off their energy bills. With nuclear switching solar off for 67% of the year, they will not only lose the energy savings from solar, but also be forced to pay for the higher nuclear power prices, more than doubling the average bill to $2,468 (see graph).

“Australia’s energy grid is a Goldilocks grid. You cannot have too much power or too little power at any one time. It has to be just right,” Mr Grimes said.

“If you flood the energy grid with inflexible nuclear power, you have to turn off household solar panels to balance out the grid and 12.5 million Australians won’t be able to slash their power bills with solar as a result.”

Doubling Under Dutton detailed analysis

The following charts demonstrate the nuclear power policy impact on household bills for solar and non-solar homes across Australia, and for states within the National Electricity Market (NEM).

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Increased Power Bills due to Nuclear across the National Electricity Market (NEM).

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Increased Power Bills due to Nuclear across New South Wales.

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Increased Power Bills due to Nuclear across South-East Queensland.

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Increased Power Bills due to Nuclear across Victoria.

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Increased Power Bills due to Nuclear across South Australia.

Calculations and Assumptions 

The Smart Energy Council’s analysis and calculations relies on assumptions put forward by the Federal Opposition and the author of its nuclear policy Frontier Economics.

Nuclear power is an inflexible source of power generation that would be looking to join Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM), which is an increasingly fluid market with a high penetration of variable renewables, storage and other instantaneous capacity generators, and aging coal being decommissioned.

Nuclear power will be maintaining a 90% capacity factor, as per the Frontier Economics Analysis, which will mean that when more lower-cost renewable energy is being generated than the demand for electricity is, something else will need to be shut-down to avoid blackouts. 

Rooftop solar will be the easiest form of generation to be switched off due to its distributed nature and low cost. Previous analysis has shown that solar systems will be shut-down 67% of the time. 

In addition to shutting off rooftop solar for households, nuclear power is also a more expensive form of generation as shown in IEEFA’s Report Nuclear in Australia would increase power bills

Solar households will therefore have their solar savings reduced, as well as paying a higher price of electricity to replace their generation. 

The following outlines the calculations and assumptions used to complete the analysis.

  • The Smart Energy Council has used the Coalition’s nuclear plan and commissioned report from Frontier Economics for the following assumptions:
    • 13,000 megawatts (MW) of nuclear capacity.
      • The two sites for Small Modular Reactors are missing from the Frontier analysis, reducing from a 14,000 MW plan to 13,000 MW.
      • This analysis excluded the site in Collie Western Australia, creating a National Energy Market-only analysis.
    • A 90% capacity factor, to be in-line with the Frontier report.
      • This is just above the highest end of the range used by CSIRO, which is 53% to 89%.
      • Nuclear is stated as a ‘baseload’ generation source “which produces electricity more or less continually”.
  • We note the assumption that the lives of the current coal power plants in the NEM will be stretched out until nuclear power plants replace them.
    • The nuclear power plants are proposed to be on the same sites as the coal-fired power stations. 
    • This requires a decommissioning and demolition of the coal generators, before a lengthy build period if they are to be located on the same sites. 
    • Additionally, no appropriate costing was factored-in to the modelling for keeping these coal plants operating beyond their design life as proposed by both the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the plant owners, especially accounting for significant maintenance and upgrades that will be needed to keep the aging coal powered generation fleet operating.
    • Unless the coalition plans to either stop Australian households from installing solar on their houses and saving thousands of dollars per year, or allow a period of blackouts due to lack of generation, we will assume that energy generation build-out will continue until the nuclear power plants are commissioned.
    • This will require the shoe-horning of the nuclear power generators into the NEM once they have been commissioned.
  • Rooftop solar PV assumptions:
    • The standard household solar system is 6.6kilowatt (kW) which produces 30-50 kilowatt hours (kWh) per day in summer and 15-25 kWh per day in winter. 
    • The average size of new solar installations is close to 10kW.
    • For a 6.6kW system, there is an annual average of 25 kWh per day.
    • For a 10kW system, there is an annual average of 40 kWh per day.
    • The default power bill across the NEM is $2,007 for FY 2023-24 from DCCEEW modelling.
    • The average bill saving from solar ranges across the NEM, with an average of $1,000 for FY 2023-24.
  • The current amount of rooftop solar energy in the NEM has reached numerous records in the last few months:
    • Maximum instantaneous Victorian rooftop PV share at 67.8% on Saturday 12 October 2024 at 13:00 hrs.
    • Maximum instantaneous South Australian rooftop PV share at 112.9% on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 13:15 hrs.
    • Maximum instantaneous Queensland rooftop PV share at 51.9% on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 12:40 hrs.
    • Maximum instantaneous NEM rooftop PV share at 50.4% on Saturday 12 October 2024 at 13:00 hrs.
  • Due to the inflexibility of nuclear generation, when there is excess generation from rooftop solar, it will need to be ramped down, despite the National Electricity Market usually setting the price of generation.
    • Noting rooftop solar is the cheapest option by a long way, forcing out more expensive forms of generation such as gas or coal.
  • It is assumed that rooftop solar will be shut off during daylight hours to allow for nuclear energy to enter the system without causing grid instability and hence blackouts from the excess capacity created.
    • This is due to the ease of solar shutdown with the emergence of solar backstop measures, as well as market operators not having to compensate households for solar shutdown.
    • Rooftop solar is the immediate victim as larger stations would be able to defend their right to produce power.

Cost impacts:

If solar will be shut off 67% of the time for all solar homes, this will significantly impact the savings recovered by these homes that have invested in solar. 

The median power bills for each state were sourced from the IEEFA Report Nuclear in Australia would increase power bills

  • Victoria: $1,565
  • South-East Queensland: $2,220
  • New South Wales: $2,074
  • South Australia: $2,363

The solar savings for each household are taken from DCCEEW estimates in October 2023.

  • Victoria: $687
  • South-East Queensland: $866
  • New South Wales: $1,015
  • South Australia: $930

The additional cost of electricity from nuclear is taken from the mean price increase across the relevant examples for each state as outlined in the IEEFA Report Nuclear in Australia would increase power bills. Noting, this amount was for the median household power bill and is reduced in proportion to power bills for houses with solar.

  • Victoria: $656
  • South-East Queensland: $720
  • New South Wales: $676
  • South Australia: $607

The additional cost from solar shutdown is due to the impact of nuclear power plants resulting in solar being shut down for 67% of the year, and this additional energy will need to be purchased at a higher cost rate.

  • Victoria: $740
  • South-East Queensland: $980
  • New South Wales: $917
  • South Australia: $990

The table calculating the average across the four NEM jurisdictions is shown below.

NEM AverageCurrent Cost of ElectricityAdditional Cost of Electricity from NuclearAdditional Cost from Solar ShutdownTotal Power Bill
Nuclear Power Bill – With Solar$2,468$1,181$380
= 665 x (1,181/2,720)
$907= ⅓ x (2,056+665)$2,468
Current Power Bill – With Solar$1,181$1,181$1,181
Nuclear Power Bill – No Solar$2,720$2,056$665$2,720
Current Power Bill – No Solar$2,056$2,056$2,056

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